Turkish economy grew by 2.1% yoy in the second quarter of 2014, missing estimates. According to Reuters’ Survey, the
markets expected 2.65% yoy GDP growth. On the other hand, Turkstat revised first quarter GDP growth upwards from 4.3% to 4.7% and the 2013 year-end GDP growth from 4% to 4.1%. The annual GDP growth in the first half of 2014 was realized as 3.3%. Please click here for details. 

Current account deficit was realized as 2.6 billion USD in July, parallel to expectations. It was 6.3 billion USD in the same period of 2013. In the first seven months of the year, the deficit narrowed by 38.3% yoy. The 12-month cumulative current account deficit also declined from 52.1 billion USD in June to 48.5 billion USD in July, the lowest level since January 2011. This development stemmed mainly from the narrowing foreign trade deficit thanks to the increasing exports and partly from the positive performance of services balance. Please click here for details.

Calendar adjusted industrial production index increased by 3.6% in July compared to the same month of the previous year. Seasonal and calendar adjusted index increased by 1.8% on a monthly basis in July. Among the main industry groups, the highest seasonal and calendar adjusted increase was registered in capital goods production in the same period.

In September, Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) decreased by 1 points compared to the same month of the previous year and was realized as 74.4%. Seasonally adjusted CUR, on the other hand, remained flat compared to the previous month and was realized as 74.1%.

Although exports exhibited the weakest performance of the last nine months with an increase of 2.6% yoy in July, foreign trade deficit narrowed to 6.5 billion USD, below the market expectations, thanks to the sharp decline in imports (13.5% yoy). In fact, imports dropped at the fastest rate since October 2009. Thus, the import coverage ratio increased by 10.6 points yoy and reached 67.5%, the highest level in four months. Seasonally and calendar adjusted figures also confirmed that exports performed much better than imports in July. Please click here for details.

In August, CPI and Domestic PPI (D-PPI) increased by 0.09% and 0.42% mom, respectively. Monthly inflation, which generally follows a decreasing trend during summer months, continued to rise in this period of 2014. After having followed an upward trend in July, the annual CPI inflation maintained relatively its strong pace in August and was realized as 9.54%. In the same period, owing to the diminishing base effect, the annual D-PPI inflation also rose to 9.88%, nearing double-digit levels. Please click here for details.

 

Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) increased by 0.8 points on monthly basis and was realized as 107.6 in September. Analyzing the components of the index, favorable assessments regarding general course of business, total orders for the last three months, current stock of finished goods and total orders limited the increase in RSCI. Seasonally adjusted RSCI also increased by 1.4 point compared to the previous month and was realized as 107.6. Consumer Confidence Index contracted by 0.9% compared to the previous month and decreased to 73.2 in August from 73.9 in July.

In August, seasonally adjusted services, retail trade and construction confidence indices increased by 1.4%, 0.5% and 3% respectively. The increase in the construction confidence index stemmed from the reovery in total employment over the next three months and current overall order books. The resilince in business situation and demand-turnover over the past three months were influential on the course of the services confidence index. The increase in the retail trade confidence index stemmed from the recovery in business activity-sales expectation over the next three months and current volume of stock.

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