Turkish economy grew by 2.1% yoy in the second quarter of 2014, missing estimates. According to Reuters’ Survey, the
markets expected 2.65% yoy GDP growth. On the other hand, Turkstat revised first quarter GDP growth upwards from 4.3% to 4.7% and the 2013 year-end GDP growth from 4% to 4.1%. The annual GDP growth in the first half of 2014 was realized as 3.3%. Please click here for details. 

Current account deficit came in 2.2 billion USD in September, significantly below the market expectation of 2.6 billion USD. For the first nine months of the year, the current account deficit narrowed by 37.2% yoy to 30.9 billion USD. The 12-month cumulative current account deficit decreased to 46.7 billion USD. The highest level of the 12-month current account deficit was registered in October 2011 with 76.8 billion USD. CBRT started to publish the balance of payment figures in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. Please click here for details.

The calendar adjusted industrial production index increased by 2.2% yoy in September, in line with the market expectations. The increase in index was realized as 3.6% yoy in the third quarter of the year. Taking into account the annual growth rate of 3.2% in the second quarter, it is seen that industrial production gained some momentum in the third quarter of the year.  Indeed, according to seasonally adjusted figures, industrial production surged by 1.5% qoq. This picture indicated that the recovery was not temporary.

In November, Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) decreased by 0.4 point compared to the same month of the previous year and was realized as 74.5%. Seasonally adjusted CUR, on the other hand, decreased by 0.1 point compared to the previous month and to 74%.

In September, exports increased by 4.6% yoy while imports declined by 0.2% yoy. For the first nine months of 2014, exports increased by 5.5% and imports decreased by 4.2% compared to the same period of 2013. Thus, the foreign trade deficit narrowed by 18.8% in the first nine months and the import coverage ratio increased from 59.9% to 66%. Please click here for details.

In October, CPI and Domestic PPI (D-PPI) increased by 1.90% and 0.92% mom, respectively. According to the Reuters’ survey, CPI was expected to increase by 1.84% mom in October. According to the CBRT’s survey, markets’ monthly CPI expectation was 1.38%. Please click here for details.

 

Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) decreased by 4.2 points on monthly basis and was realized as 102.7 in November. Analyzing the components of the index, favorable assessments regarding general business climate and fixed capital investment limited the decrease in RSCI. Seasonally adjusted RSCI also contracted by 1.2 points compared to the previous month and was realized as 108.4. Consumer Confidence Index contracted by 4.3% compared to the previous month and decreased to 70.3 in October from 74 in September.

In October, seasonally adjusted services and construction confidence indices decreased by 1.1% mom and 2.4% mom, respectively while retail trade services index increased by 0.1% mom. The decrease in the construction confidence index stemmed from the deterioration in current overall order books and total employment. The deterioration in business situation and demand-turnover over the past three months was influential on the course of the services confidence index. The main drivers behind the increase in the retail trade confidence index were the improvement in business activity-sales expectation over the last three months and current volume of stock.

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