Balance of Payments - April 2026

The current account deficit in April came in at 5.7 billion USD, close to market expectations. In the same period last year, the current account deficit was 8.4 billion USD. Front-loaded demand for exports due to geopolitical uncertainties and a relatively mild increase in imports supported the current account outlook. Excluding net gold and energy trade, the current account balance posted a surplus for the first time in five months and the 12-month current account deficit, which was 39.7 billion USD in March, fell to 37 billion USD in April.

While risks to the trade deficit continue to be on the upside due to geopolitical tensions, preliminary data suggest that the trade deficit narrowed in May, as was also the case in April. During this period, energy imports rose by 43.4% yoy. On the other hand, gold imports fell by 55.5% yoy supporting the trade balance. Consequently, while total imports declined by 10.7%, the decline in imports excluding energy and gold was 16.1%, driven by also moderate domestic demand and calendar effects.

Looking at the first five months of the year, exports recorded a mild increase of 0.3% yoy, while the imports registered an increase of 1.2% yoy. During this period, the trade deficit widened by 3.6% to 42.7 billion USD. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, we anticipate that the expected increase in tourism revenues during the summer months will somewhat limit the upward risks on the current account deficit in the coming period. The current account deficit-to-GDP ratio, which stood at 1.9% at the end of last year, has reached 2.4% in the first quarter when calculated based on the four-quarter cumulative totals. In the CBRT’S Survey of Market Participants published today, the year-end current account deficit forecast stands at 49.2 billion USD and we believe that the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio could hover around 3% by the year-end.