Balance of Payments - December 2025

In December, the current account balance posted a deficit of 7.3 billion USD, exceeding market expectations of 5.2 billion USD. This development was driven by the decline in service revenues alongside falling travel revenues, the expansion in the primary income deficit, and the widening in balance of payments-defined trade deficit to its highest level in the last eight months.

Despite the increase in tourism revenues in 2025, the current account deficit widened by 142% yoy to 25.2 billion USD, in line with the rapid rise in trade deficit.

In 2025, despite the positive impact from the services balance, the current account deficit reached 25.2 billion USD due to the increase in the trade deficit and the expansion in the primary income balance. Thus, the current account deficit exceeded the forecast of the Medium Term Program (22.6 billion USD) as a result of net gold imports exceeding expectations. In 2026, assuming that there will be no additional pressure from energy prices and that domestic demand conditions will be affected by tight monetary policy at a similar level, we anticipate that the current account deficit will be close to the 2025 level. We believe that domestic gold demand and gold prices will continue to be a risk factor for headline current account deficit during this period. On the financing side, we assess that the foreign inflows in the government bond and stock markets in January and the improvement in Türkiye’s credit rating outlook support positive expectations, particularly regarding portfolio inflows, for the remainder of the year.