Balance of Payments - November 2025

In November, the current account deficit exceeded market expectations of 3.3 billion USD and was realized as 4 billion USD. Thus, the current account deficit increased by 2.3 times yoy to 18.5 billion USD in the January-November period, while reaching its highest level in the last 19 months at 23.2 billion USD according to 12-month cumulative data. In addition to the balance of payments defined trade deficit reaching its highest level in the last five months, the end of the summer season caused passenger transportation and tourism revenues to fall to their lowest levels since March, contributing to the high current account deficit in November.

In November, exports increased by 2.4% yoy to 22.1 billion USD, while imports rose by 4.1% to 26.1 billion USD. Thus, the trade deficit widened by 21.8% yoy to 6.4 billion USD in this period. During the same period, non-monetary gold imports went up by 18.5% yoy to 2.5 billion USD, while energy imports decreased by 16.2% to 4.8 billion USD. Excluding net gold and energy trade, the current account surplus narrowed by 40.1% yoy to 2.1 billion USD in November.

In the first 11 months of 2025, exports increased by 4.8% yoy to 242 billion USD, while imports went up by 6.4% to 286 billion USD. Thus, the balance of payments defined trade deficit rose by 25% yoy to 62.2 USD billion during this period.

With the end of the summer season in tourism, net service revenues fell to their lowest level since March, to 3.9 billion USD in November. During this period, annual increases in net passenger transportation and travel revenues were recorded at 16.3% and 5.0%, respectively.

Net service revenues for the first 11 months of the year rose by 3.3% compared to the same period of last year, reaching 60.3 billion USD, the highest level ever recorded for this period. During this period, net travel revenues went up by 2.3% to 47.9 billion USD, while net passenger transportation revenues rose by 11.3% to 20.1 billion USD.

Direct investments, which showed a fluctuating pace in the January-October period, recorded a net capital inflow of 343 million USD in November. During this period, domestic residents acquired net assets worth of 647 million USD abroad, while non-residents made net investments of 990 million USD in Türkiye. It was noteworthy that net capital investments abroad by domestic residents reached their highest level since December 2021 at 899 million USD, with real estate acquisitions accounting for 201 million USD of these investments. Looking at the composition of direct investments by non-residents in Türkiye, capital inflows of 258 million USD (January-October average: USD 714 million) were observed in the capital item and 218 million USD (January-October average: 184 million USD) in the real estate item in November.

Net capital inflows from direct investments in the January-November period decreased by 6.5% yoy to 3.7 billion USD. During this period, domestic residents' investments abroad went up by 51% yoy to 8.7 billion USD, while foreign residents' investments in Türkiye increased by 27.6% to 12.4 billion USD.

Following the decline in portfolio investments in October, there was a net capital outflow of 1 billion USD in November. During this period, portfolio investments abroad by domestic residents rose by 1.8 billion USD, while portfolio investments in Türkiye by non-residents increased only slightly, by 772 million USD. Non-residents continued to make net sales of 59 million USD in the stock market, while they made their highest purchase since July, amounting to 1.6 billion USD in the government bond market.

In the January-November period, a net capital outflow of 1.8 billion USD was recorded from portfolio investments due to the net acquisition of 12.4 billion USD in assets abroad by domestic residents, compared to 10.6 billion USD investments in Türkiye by non-residents. In the same period of 2024, there was a net capital inflow of 13.2 billion USD in this category.

Net capital inflows of 1.8 billion USD were recorded under other investments in November. Net capital outflows of 3.3 billion USD recorded under effective and deposit item during this period limited the positive outlook in other investments. In November, other sectors used 2 billion USD net credit, while banks used 1.5 billion USD from abroad.

In the first 11 months of 2024, other sectors' credit utilization from abroad was 1.7 billion USD, while in the same period last year, this figure was 16.1 billion USD. Banks' net credit utilization from abroad declined from 14.7 billion USD to 12.1 billion USD in the same period. According to 12-month cumulative data as of November, the long-term debt rollover ratios of banks and other sectors continued to remain above their long-term averages at 185% and 181%, respectively.

Reserve assets, which fell by 1.6 billion USD in October, recorded a decline of 4.8 billion USD in November. Thus, the decline in reserve assets since the beginning of the year amounted to 17.9 billion USD. With the 1.9 billion USD outflow recorded in November, the net error and omission item pointed to an outflow of 18 billion USD in the first 11 months of the year.

The rapid increase in the foreign trade deficit, coupled with the impact of seasonal factors, led to a decline in service revenues, resulting in a current account deficit for the first time in four months in November. According to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Trade, exports rose by 12.8% yoy in December, while imports rose by 11.2%. Considering the preliminary data indicating a 600 million USD annual increase in the trade deficit, we estimate that the current account deficit will close 2025 at a level close to the 22.6 billion USD projected in the Medium-Term Program.