Budget Balance - January 2026

In January, central government budget revenues rose by 55% yoy to 1.4 trillion TRY, while budget expenditures recorded a similar increase with 54.9% to 1.6 trillion TRY. Thus, in the first month of the year, the central government budget deficit widened by 54% yoy to 214.5 billion TRY. During the same period, the Treasury cash balance showed a deficit of 246.2 billion TRY. In January, the primary surplus increased tenfold on an annual basis to 241.9 billion TRY.

In January, the budget deficit widened rapidly on an annual basis as budget revenues and expenditures rose above the CPI inflation. Considering the support provided by the increase in VAT collected domestically to tax revenues during this period, we believe that the course of domestic economic activity in the coming months and the audit of tax revenues will continue to be important. On the other hand, the relatively limited real increase of non-interest budget expenditures in January indicates that there has been no significant deterioration in budget discipline. Interest expenditures, which accounted for nearly 28% of total expenditures in January (compared to 14% in 2025), remain the main factor putting pressure on the budget balance.