January 2026
| 28.Nov | 31.Dec | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Y CDS (basis points) | 238 | 205 | -33 bp down |
| TR 2-Y Benchmark Yield | %38.47 | %37.22 | -125 bp down |
| BIST-100 | 10,899 | 11,262 | 3.3% up |
| USD/TRY | 42.4732 | 42.9498 | 1.1% up |
| EUR/TRY | 49.2663 | 50.2667 | 2.0% up |
| Currency Basket | 45.8698 | 46.6083 | 1.6% up |
Concluding Remarks
In December, risk appetite generally remained positive amid growing expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, its cautious messages regarding the policy path for 2026 caused market expectations for future rate cuts to weaken somewhat. Meanwhile, as divided opinions among Fed members have become more apparent, the policies the institution will pursue after the new appointments in 2026 will be among the most critical issues to watch in the new year. In addition, the impact on global markets of the midterm elections to be held in November 2026 in the US and the policies Trump may pursue to increase his public support ahead of the elections will be monitored, as well.
In the Euro Area, where the ECB completed its interest rate cut cycle in the first half of 2025, the trajectory of economic activity, which is expected to strengthen in line with infrastructure and defense spending, stands out as another issue to be followed. Although the escalating trade war tensions between the US and China in the first half of 2025 appear to have subsided for now, the actions to be taken by both sides to strengthen their positions will be closely monitored until the negotiations which were postponed to November 2026. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine intensified in the last month of 2025, but no solution has been reached yet. The tension between the US and Venezuela, which rose towards the end of the year, continues in the first days of the new year with the US arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. In the coming period, geopolitical developments will continue to be closely monitored in terms of their impact on global economic activity and the price trends of commodities, particularly gold and oil.
In Türkiye, the disinflation process continued in December. The fact that monthly CPI inflation remained below expectations and the 1% level in the last month of the year, following November, and the slowdown in service inflation were noted as positive developments for shaping expectations in the coming period. Depending on the course of inflation and the improvement in expectations, in 2026, the CBRT is expected to gradually continue the interest rate cuts that it resumed in July 2025.
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