Weekly Bulletin - April 3, 2026
Utkan İnam
utkan.inam@isbank.com.tr| Market Indicators | 27-Mar | 2-Apr | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIST-100 Index | 12,698 | 13,052 | 2.8% up |
| TRY 2-Y Benchmark Rate | 42.62% | 41.12% | 150 bp down |
| Türkiye 5-Y CDS Premium | 307 | 289 | 19 bp down |
| MSCI EM Equity Index | 1,437 | 1,434 | 0.2% down |
| US 10-Y Bond Rate | 4.44% | 4.31% | 13 bp down |
| EUR/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1537 | 0.3% up |
| USD/TRY | 44.4276 | 44.4538 | 0.1% up |
| EUR/TRY | 51.1319 | 51.3619 | 0.4% up |
| Gold (USD/ounce) | 4,492 | 4,676 | 4.1% up |
| Brent Oil (USD/barrel) | 112.6 | 109.0 | 3.1% down |
This week, Trump’s statements regarding the course of the war came to the forefront. In the early days of the week, oil prices declined following remarks suggesting that a ceasefire could be on the table. However, oil prices rebounded after President Trump stated that they are going to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. During the data busy week, employment, PMI, and inflation indicators stood out. In the US, nonfarm payrolls increased by 178 thousand in March, marking the strongest rise in the past 15 months. Meanwhile, in the Euro Area, preliminary data indicated that annual CPI reached 2.5%, the highest level since January 2025. In Türkiye, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.9 in March, its lowest level in the past five months, while CPI inflation stood at 1.94% on a monthly basis and 30.87% yoy. Next week, U.S. February PCE data and final GDP growth figures for the fourth quarter will be closely monitored. In Türkiye, the February industrial production index will be released.
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