Weekly Bulletin - December 12, 2025

During the week marked by a busy data agenda, meetings of the CBRT and the Fed were closely monitored. The CBRT cut its policy rate by 150 basis points to 38%. In Türkiye, industrial production declined by 0.8% mom in October, while retail sales recorded a modest increase of 0.2%. In the same period, the current account balance posted a surplus of 457 million USD. Inflation expectations of market participants declined in December. At its final FOMC meeting of the year, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations, while revising its growth forecasts upward and its inflation expectations downward for the coming period. The Euro Area grew by 0.3% qoq in the third quarter of the year, exceeding expectations. The World Bank and IMF revised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy upward, in line with lower-than-expected tariffs and supportive policies pursued in the country. Next week, the monetary policy meetings af ECB, BoJ, and BoE's will be closely watched, along with PMI data for advanced economies. In Türkiye, the central government budget figures and consumer confidence index will be announced.

In the week when US stock markets displayed a positive outlook on expectations of Fed’s interest rate cuts, gold prices rose by 2.1% wow to their highest level since October 21, while the price of silver broke records by rising above 64 USD/ounce. Although Brent crude oil prices rose midweek after the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, they closed the week down nearly 4% at 61.3 USD/barrell. The BIST-100 index traded mostly higher this week on expectations of a CBRT interest rate cut. The 5-year CDS spread fell by 2 basis points on a weekly basis, to 225 basis points at Thursday's close.

Next week, monetary policy meetings in leading economies will continue to be the focus of global markets. While markets do not expect the ECB to change its reference interest rates, the BoJ is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points. Industrial production and PMI data in major economies will also be monitored this week, while the central government budget and consumer confidence index will be announced in Türkiye.