Inflation Report - June 2025
Alper Gürler
alper.gurler@isbank.com.trH. Erhan Gül
erhan.gul@isbank.com.trDilek Sarsın Kaya
dilek.kaya@isbank.com.trOktay Erkan Temizkan
erkan.temizkan@isbank.com.trCPI rose by 1.37% in June.
In June, CPI rose by 1.37% mom, below the market expectations of 1.45% and recorded the lowest increase of this year. Annual CPI inflation continued to decline and came down to 35.05%. CPI inflation in the first half of the year was realized as 16.67%.
Domestic PPI increased by 2.46% in June, close to its May level, and rose above CPI for the second consecutive month. In this period, D-PPI inflation was realized as 24.45% yoy and 15.71% in the first half of the year.
Expectations
The decline in inflation was mainly driven by the food and non-alcoholic beverages group, whose prices fell in June as in May. On the other hand, the fact that core indicators were recorded above the headline inflation and price increases in the services group, where inertia is high, regained momentum pointed to the ongoing risks to the underlying trend of inflation. The rise in natural gas prices and the expected SCT revisions in July may push inflation slightly upwards, but we expect annual inflation to continue to decline in the summer months with the support of seasonal factors.
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