October 2026

Although the resumption of indirect talks between the US and Iran through mediators in the second half of September supported expectations for a diplomatic solution, disagreements over key issues persisted. During this period, elevated energy prices increased pressures on the global inflation outlook, while leading indicators pointed to a continued rise in input costs. Against this backdrop, the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ raised their policy rates at their September meetings, while central banks drew attention to increasing inflationary risks. In September, rising bond yields weighed on risk appetite in global equity markets, while continued investor interest in AI-related technology stocks limited losses.

Meanwhile, leading indicators released in September suggest that global economic activity remained resilient, supported by the positive impact of AI-related investments on production and trade, and that the global economy is set to enter the final quarter of the year on a strong footing. In the period ahead, the pass-through of persistently high energy prices to consumer prices will remain a key factor shaping the global inflation outlook and central banks’ policy decisions.

In Türkiye, leading indicators on production pointed to the continuation of weak operating conditions in the industrial sector in the third quarter, while the slowdown in domestic demand became more pronounced. The Medium Term Program published on September 6 showed as well that the projections made last year for 2026 were revised to slower growth and higher inflation, current account deficit and budget deficit. Looking ahead, depending on the course and persistence of tensions in the Middle East, the level of energy prices and the domestic demand outlook, which may be affected by the liquidation process of some investment funds, will remain among the key factors determining the course of macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation. The messages to be delivered by the CBRT at its next meeting on October 22 will be closely monitored following its decision to maintain a tight monetary stance at the September meeting. In addition, having displayed a volatile course in September due to liquidity problems at some investment funds, the pace of financial markets will be closely watched.