Weekly Bulletin - December 19, 2025
Esra Mine Güngör
mine.gungor2@isbank.com.tr| Market Indicators | 12-Dec | 18-Dec | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIST-100 Endeksi | 11.311 | 11.335 | 0,2 up |
| TRY 2-Y Benchmark Rate | % 38,34 | % 37,90 | 44 bp down |
| Türkiye 5-Y CDS Premium | 219 | 208 | 11 bp down |
| MSCI EM Equity Index | 1.390 | 1.358 | 2,3 down |
| US 10-Y Bond Rate | %4,20 | %4,12 | 8 bp down |
| EUR/USD | 1,1740 | 1,1721 | 0,2 down |
| USD/TRY | 42,6903 | 42,7296 | 0,1 up |
| EUR/TRY | 50,1210 | 50,0781 | 0,1 down |
| Gold (USD/ounce) | 4.302 | 4.332 | 0,7 up |
| Brent Oil (USD/barrel) | 61,1 | 59,8 | 2,1 down |
This week, the monetary policy meetings of major central banks were closely monitored in the markets. While the ECB made no changes to its reference interest rates, the Bank of England cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. In Japan, the BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. In the U.S., the delayed release of December CPI data showed a positive trend, while employment data offered a balanced view of the labor market. US preliminary PMI data for December remained relatively weak. In China, industrial production and retail sales data signaled weak economic activity. In Türkiye, the central government budget recorded a surplus of 169.5 billion TRY in November, while the consumer confidence index fell to 83.5. Next week, the US GDP growth and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data will be at the forefront of the global market agenda.
Global financial markets declined this week, led by a correction in technology stocks. According to closing data on Thursday, December 18, the MSCI World Index fell 0.6% compared to last Friday, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.3%. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated throughout the week in response to reports about tensions between the United States and Venezuela, as well as Russia and Ukraine. It also declined by 2.1% during this period, falling below 60 USD, affected by the weak outlook for global economic activity. With investors generally adopting a cautious stance during the week, the price of gold per ounce rose by 0.7% to 4,332 USD. The BIST-100 index outperformed global markets, rising by 0.2% compared to last Friday to reach 11,335 at Thursday's close. Turkey's 5-year CDS premium fell to 208 basis points, its lowest level since May 2018. Yields on 2-year and 10-year benchmark bonds also fell by 13 and 44 basis points, respectively.
Next week, global markets will focus on US GDP growth and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data. Next week, the People's Bank of China will also announce its policy rate decision. In Türkiye, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate, real sector confidence index, and tourism data will be announced.
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