Weekly Bulletin - July 11, 2025

Global markets had a relatively quiet data agenda this week, with investors' attention focused on Trump's new tariffs on a product and country basis, as well as Fed minutes. In the minutes, Fed members, who were largely in agreement on potential rate cuts, disagreed on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Retail sales in the Eurozone fell to their lowest monthly level in nearly a year in May, indicating that demand did not recover significantly in the second quarter. Final CPI data in Germany confirmed preliminary data, while data released in China revealed that deflationary pressures persisted in the country. In May, Türkiye's current account deficit totaled 684 million USD. Industrial production increased by 3.1% during this period, largely compensating for the April decline. In June, the Treasury cash balance showed a 455.1 billion TRY deficit. In the data agenda of the coming week, inflation and industrial production data to be released in major economies stand out, while budget and house sales data will be released in Türkiye.

Equity markets are expected to close the week flat on a global scale. While Trump's tariff statements put some pressure on stock markets at the start of the week, increasing optimism about trade negotiations boosted the markets in the following days. Thus, the MSCI World and Emerging Markets indices remained flat as of Thursday's close, compared to last week's Friday close. Oil prices rose slightly despite expectations that OPEC+ countries' decision to increase output would lower prices, while gold prices fell slightly during this period.

Inflation and industrial production indices will be released in major economies next week. Preliminary growth data for the second quarter will also be monitored in China. In Türkiye, central government budget balance and housing market statistics will be released.