Weekly Bulletin - November 28, 2025
Utkan İnam
utkan.inam@isbank.com.tr| Market Indicators | 21-Nov | 28-Nov | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIST-100 Index | 10,923 | 10,945 | 0.2 up |
| TRY 2-Y Benchmark Rate | 39.67% | 38.77% | -90 bp down |
| Türkiye 5-Y CDS Premium | 246 | 239 | -7 bp down |
| MSCI EM Equity Index | 1,334 | 1,370 | 2.7 up |
| US 10-Y Bond Rate | 4.06% | 4.00% | -6 bp down |
| EUR/USD | 1.1511 | 1.1595 | 0.7 up |
| USD/TRY | 42.4353 | 42.4374 | 0.0 notr |
| EUR/TRY | 48.8530 | 49.2151 | 0.7 up |
| Gold (USD/ounce) | 4.065 | 4.157 | 2.3 up |
| Brent Oil (USD/barrel) | 62.6 | 63.3 | 1.2 up |
This week, merkets followed the developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and Fed officials’ statements on the interest rate policy. Statements from the Fed officials and the economic data releases this week strengthened expectations for a rate cut at the December meeting. IMF published the Concluding Statement of the Article IV Mission on Türkiye. The Fund stated that while the policies implemented in Türkiye have yielded positive results, persistently high inflation continues to pose vulnerabilities. The head of CBRT, Fatih Karahan, said that although there has recently been a slowdown in disinflation, the lower-than-expected October inflation and the leading indicators for November point to a healthy continuation of the disinflation process. Household and real-sector inflation expectations declined in November. Sectoral confidence indices also improved in November. Next week, GDP growth figures for the third quarter, November inflation data and ISO manufacturing PMI will be announced in Türkiye.
This week, global markets were influenced by strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut, somewhat easing concerns about excessive valuations in tech stocks, and the developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire plan. U.S. stock markets, closed on Thursday and partially on Friday, performed positively during the first three days of the week. As of Thursday’s close, the MSCI World Index was up 3.1% from the previous Friday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index also ended the week with gains.
The BIST-100 index recorded a limited weekly increase of 0.2% compared to Thursday’s close. The Turkish lira traded flat against the U.S. dollar, while it depreciated slightly against the euro in parallel with the rise in the EUR/USD parity. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS risk premium is currently near its lowest levels in seven years, standing at 239 basis points intraday. The same level was last seen on September 18.
Globally, PMI data and the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data for September will come to the forefront. Domestically, Q3 GDP growth figures and November inflation will be closely watched. The ISO Türkiye manufacturing PMI data will also be a key item on next week’s economic calendar.
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